NOAA’s Tropical Weather Outlook

On August 18th, NOAA raised the 2012 hurricane season prediction. The new outlook still indicates a fifty percent chance of a near normal Atlantic hurricane season but increases the chance of an above normal season to thirty-five percent and decreases the probability of a below normal season to just fifteen percent from the initial outlook that was issued in May.

Right now there are wind patterns and warmer than average water temperatures in the Atlantic which are very conducive to tropical storms and hurricanes. The tropical wave that’s in the Atlantic now continues to gain strength and momentum as a new wave is developing near Africa. The tropical wave in the Atlantic is becoming more organized and is likely to develop into a storm within the next couple of days. As of Monday a.m., the system was over 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving in a westerly direction at about twenty-five miles per hour. It is still too early to tell if the storm will pose a threat to land but most forecasters agree that it will aim right for the islands this week. Just behind that system is the area over the African coast that could develop into storm.

Hurricane Gordon caused some minor flooding as it struck the Azores island off the coast of Portugal early Monday morning. Gordon is now losing its strength and is headed in the direction of continental Europe. The National Hurricane Center said Monday that Gordon will most likely become weaker and turn to a post-tropical cyclone later in the day. Gordon did earn the status of a Category 2 hurricane before it lost its momentum after passing over cool waters before hitting the Azores.

The next two named storms of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season are Isaac and Joyce. The tropical wave that’s located west of the Cape Verde islands stands a good chance of becoming a tropical depression and later a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center stated Monday that the system has a sixty percent chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

It Isaac does develop into a full blown hurricane, it could very well impact the United States. We are now just approaching the middle of the 2012 hurricane season which is when history has shown is the most active period for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic ocean. Tropical depression Helene is now dissipating over northern Mexico, just south of Brownsville, Texas. That storm was very dis-organized but it still will bring up to eight inches of rain in some areas of northeastern Mexico over the next week before it dies out.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *