This week, for the hurricane and tropical storm outlook it will be fairly inactive with a little chance of any activity. For now, we are only keeping an eye on the eastern Pacific, as there may be a developing threat for Mexico early into next week.
This hurricane season thus far has been active, yet none of the storms have made landfall or made any large impact, as they have been dissipating as they moved towards land. This season has been all about the wind shear, which is described as unfavorable winds that begin to tear apart thunderstorms before they begin to cluster together and grow into tropical cyclones. The Caribbean has seen near-record high shears this month, and there is no visible sign that it will be letting up this week.
An El Nino for this year has not yet been officiated, but it is definitely beginning to make its presence known, and may be playing a vital role in the upper level flow across the Gulf and Caribbean Oceans. With that said, El Nino is a living and ever-evolving state, and only one factor of many that affects the day to day weather patterns along the many coasts of the U.S and other ocean-bordering countries.
As the El Nino begins to make its way back into the tropical forecast, it is important to keep in mind that its presence alone does not mean that this year will be inactive at all. To the contrary, hurricane seasons during weak El Ninos can still be very active. Even disastrous landfalling hurricanes can occur during very strong El Ninos, when total storm numbers as a whole may be low. Some of the most costly hurricanes that have ever hit the U.S have been during El Ninos to be exact. As the season progresses we will obtain more information.
There is a persistent area of low pressure that has been festering below Cabo San Lucas on the Pacific side of Mexico in the eastern Pacific. It has finally buckled against brisk winds, meaning that there is no imminent threat. Soon, it will be moving into cooler ocean waters and a much drier atmosphere, which will put an end to any further developments. The weather models are also forecasting a very strong area of low pressure to develop just south of the Pacific coast of Mexico later on this week, and moving into the weekend. It is still too early to predict what exactly will occur from this cell, but it will definitely be monitored, as there is a slight threat for Mexico into next week.
Check The Weather Channel for an extended tropical storm forecast.